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United Arab Emirates To Quit OPEC After 59 Years
Abu Dhabi’s exit clears the way for higher oil output as production limits and Gulf supply risks test the producer group.
The UAE will leave OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, 2026, ending a 59-year membership and changing its role in global energy markets.
The decision was announced in a government statement carried by state news agency WAM after what Abu Dhabi described as a broad review of its production policy and capacity. The statement said the move reflects “the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile”.
For Abu Dhabi, the break removes a quota system that had become harder to justify. OPEC’s production limits are meant to support prices by holding back supply. That model fits economies more exposed to oil revenue. The UAE says its non-oil economy now accounts for about 75 percent of GDP, while ADNOC (The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) has spent heavily to lift crude capacity.
It does not plan an immediate surge in production. The UAE said it would bring more barrels to market “in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions”. It also pointed to continued spending on oil, gas, renewables and low-carbon technologies.
The market reaction was swift. Brent crude, the European benchmark, moved above $100 per barrel for the first time since April 8 and reached $111 as of writing.
The timing is awkward for OPEC. Iraq, Kazakhstan and the UAE have all produced above agreed quotas in recent months and faced pressure to compensate. The UAE is the group’s third-largest producer. Its departure follows Qatar’s exit in 2019 and comes as OPEC prepared for a meeting in Vienna on Wednesday.
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There’s also the Strait of Hormuz issue. The statement referred to disruption linked to the conflict with Iran, which has sharply restricted tanker movement through the waterway between Iran and Oman. Around a fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas normally passes through the route. The EIA estimates Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar and Bahrain kept 7.5 million barrels per day of crude output offline in March and 9.1 million in April.
Despite current volatility, the split hasn’t appeared from nowhere. In 2021, the UAE resisted an extension of production cuts unless its quota was raised, arguing that capacity investments were being constrained by outdated baselines. A compromise followed, but the dispute exposed the core issue: Abu Dhabi wanted to produce more than the system allowed.
Abu Dhabi is targeting 5 million barrels per day by 2027. Current production is around 3.4 million barrels per day, while the OPEC+ limit has held the country near 3.2 million despite capacity above 4 million.
News
Microsoft Plans $10 Billion-Plus Gulf Expansion Despite Iran Conflict
Security is shaping Microsoft’s approach, from resilience work with governments to what it will say about how the money splits by country.
Microsoft is planning more than $10 billion of investment across the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait through 2030, Vice Chair and President Brad Smith told Reuters, calling the spending schedule aggressive. The Iranian conflict that began on February 28 has not persuaded the company to scale back.
“We’re sustaining all the investments we planned to make before this conflict started, and we are in fact adding to them,” Smith said. The $10 billion-plus total does not, however, show how large those additions are.
The investment, which Smith described as part of Microsoft’s continued infrastructure expansion, is aimed at cloud and AI infrastructure and at the company’s growing regional operations. Microsoft also intends to put more than $400 million into subsea and terrestrial connectivity across the Middle East by 2030.
The spending fits the region’s own ambitions too. Gulf governments have been investing heavily in AI infrastructure as part of a push to diversify their economies beyond oil and gas and turn themselves into global technology hubs. Major cloud and AI providers have been drawn in part by the land and relatively low-cost energy on offer.
Microsoft is widening its partnerships with regional AI companies, though not on identical terms. In 2024, it invested $1.5 billion in Abu Dhabi-based G42 for a minority stake, and Smith currently sits on G42’s board. Saudi Arabia’s Humain and Qatar’s Qai are working with Microsoft on selected priority areas, but Smith said the company does not plan to make capital investments in either.
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The conflict has added another strand to Microsoft’s work in the region. Since it began, Smith said, the company has supported regional partners with digital resilience assessments, and it is now working with Gulf countries through a digital resilience initiative focused on preparedness and the protection of critical data.
So far, the company has given no country-by-country breakdown of the investment, citing security among other factors. So while the headline figure is public, how Microsoft divides the spending among the four countries is not.
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